Posted on January 04, 2016

Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) have released the preliminary estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current and constant prices for the Third quarter (Q3) of 2015. The estimates have been produced by using the data collected through the Quarterly Economic Indicator Survey and from other source agencies.

Q3, 2015 Nominal & Real GDP Estimates

The quarterly GDP at current prices in the Q3 of 2015 is estimated at 147.43Bn QR. This represents a decrease of 22.8% compared to the estimate of Q3 of 2014 placed at 191.07Bn QR. When compared to previous quarter [Q2 of 2015] revised estimate of 151.89Bn QR, a decrease of 2.9% has been noticed. The quarterly GDP in the Q3 of 2015, at constant (2013) prices [201.33 Bn QR] shows agrowth of 3.8% compared to the estimate of Q3 of 2014 [193.89 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter [Q2 of 2015] revised estimate of 195.92 Bn QR, the growth in this quarter is 2.8%.

Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas)

The nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) estimate of this sector in the Q3, 2015 has been50.55Bn QR, which shows a decline of 47.6% over the estimate of Q3, 2014, placed at 96.38Bn QR. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) revised estimate, there has been a fall of 12.0% in the GVA of this sector. The real GVA of this sector in Q3, 2015 [100.38 Bn QR], shows a rise of 0.1% over the estimate of Q3, 2014 [100.23 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) revised estimate, there has been a rise of 1.1% in the GVA of this sector. The reduction in international price levels of crude oil in this quarter has led to sharper decline in nominal GVA of this sector.

Non-Mining and Quarrying

The nominal GVA estimateof these sectorsin the Q3, 2015 has been placed at 96.88Bn QR, which shows an increase of 2.3% over the estimate of Q3, 2014 [94.69Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) revised estimate, an increase of 2.6% has been recorded. The real GVAof these sectors in Q3, 2015, totaled 100.95 Bn QR, which shows a growth of 7.8% over the corresponding quarter [Q3, 2014] GVA estimate [93.66 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) revised estimate, there has been a rise of 4.4% in the GVA of this sector.

The high growth in the Q3, 2015 is the mainly due to the increases seen in construction, social services, and financial sectors. Details of the sectoral level preliminary nominal and real GVA estimates in Q3, 2015 andQ3, 2014&Q2 of 2015 are available in the Tables 1 and 2 of the Press Release. An analysis by major industry group, comparing the performance in Q3 of 2015 with the corresponding quarter (Q3) in 2014 [Year-on-Year Basis] and with second quarter (Q2) [Quarter-on-Quarter basis] of 2015 is given in the following paragraphs.

Manufacturing

The nominal GVA of manufacturing sector in Q3 of 2015is estimated at 15.02Bn QR showing a drop of 25.5% over the estimate of corresponding quarter (Q3) of 2014 [20.15Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) revised estimate, there has been a marginal decrease of 0.2%. The real GVA of this sector is estimated at 20.44 Bn QR in Q3, 2015 showing a growth of 3.9% over the estimate of corresponding quarter (Q3) of 2014 [19.67 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015)revised GVA of this sector, there has been a growth of 4.3%.

This growth is primarily explained by the increase seen in the production of petrochemicals and GTL products during this quarter. The sharp drop [Y-o-Y] in the nominal terms is due to falling international prices.

Construction

The nominal GVA estimate of the construction placed at 13.61Bn QR in Q3, 2015 shows an increase of 16.6% when compared to the estimate of corresponding quarter of 2014 [11.67Bn QR in Q3 of 2014]. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) estimate, an increase of3.3% is noticed. The real GVA of the construction sector placed at 13.59Bn QR in Q3, 2015 shows a growth of 20.2% when compared to the GVA of corresponding quarter of 2014 [11.30 Bn QR in Q3 of 2014]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015), there has been a growth of 5.9% in the GVA of this sector.

Trade, Hotel and Restaurants

The nominal GVA of this group is estimated at 15.24Bn QR in Q3 of 2015 registering an increase of 8.5% over the estimate of corresponding quarter of 2014 [14.04Bn QR in Q3 of 2014]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) estimates, there has been an increase of 14.7% in Q3, 2015. The real GVA of the “Trade, Hotel and Restaurants” sector is estimated at 14.84 Bn QR in Q3 of 2015 registering agrowth of 5.8% over the corresponding quarter of 2014 [14.03 Bn QR in Q3 of 2014]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015), the GVA of this sector has increased by 14.8%.

Transport and Communication

This sector generated a nominal value added of 6.89Bn QR in Q3, 2015 against 6.53Bn QR in Q3, 2014 showing a rise of 5.5%. Compared to the previous quarter, Q2 of 2015, an increase of 7.4% in the GVA estimate has been noticed in this group. This sector generated a real value addition of 6.50 Bn QR in Q3, 2015 against 6.40 Bn QR estimated in Q3, 2014, showing a Y-o-Y growth of 1.5%. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q2 of 2015) estimates, the GVA estimate has risen by 5.0%.

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services

The nominal GVA of this group of economic activities is estimated at 26.27Bn QR in Q3 of 2015, showing an increase of 8.7%, (primarily due to rise in insurance and real estate sectors) when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q3, 2014) estimate of 24.17Bn QR. However, compared to the previous quarter [Q2 of 2015], a drop of 3.5% in the GVA estimate has been recorded in this group. The real GVA of this group of economic activities is estimated at 26.39 Bn QR in Q3 of 2015, showing a growth of 8.9% when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q3) estimate of 24.22 Bn QR in 2014. However, the GVA level of this quarter has shown a riseof 0.4% when compared to the revised estimate of previous quarter.

Government Services

The nominal GVA contribution of the “Government Services” which includes the provision of public health, education and other miscellaneous services is estimated at 20.06Bn QR in Q3 of 2015, which is 8.7% higher than the estimate [18.44Bn QR] of Q3 of 2014. The real GVA contribution of the “Government Services” is estimated at 19.40Bn QR in Q3 of 2015, which is 6.4% higher than the estimate of Q3 of 2014 (18.23Bn QR).

For more details on Quarterly GDP please refer to the Website: www.mdps.gov.qa and Qatar Information Exchange, www.qalm.gov.qa.The next Press Release on Q4, 2015 GDP would be on 31stMarch, 2016.

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