Posted on September 30, 2015

Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) have released the preliminary estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current and constant prices for the Second quarter (Q2) of 2015. The estimates have been produced by using the data collected through the Quarterly Economic Indicator Survey and from other source agencies.

Real GDP [GDP at constant (2013) prices] growth is 4.8% in the Q2, 2015 over Q2, 2014 GDP estimate.

Gross Domestic Product by economic 2 [qatarisbooming.com].jpgQ2, 2015 Nominal & Real GDP Estimates

The quarterly GDP at current prices in the Q2 of 2015 is estimated at 152.97 Bn QR. This represents a decrease of 19.2% compared to the estimate of Q2 of 2014 placed at 189.30 Bn QR. When compared to previous quarter [Q1 of 2015] revised estimate of 159.64 Bn QR, a decrease of 4.2% has been noticed. The quarterly GDP in the Q2 of 2015, at constant (2013) prices [196.64 Bn QR] shows a growth of 4.8% compared to the estimate of Q2 of 2014 [187.63 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter [Q1 of 2015] revised estimate of 195.67 Bn QR, the growth in this quarter is 0.5%.

Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas)

The nominal Gross Value Added (GVA) estimate of this sector in the Q2, 2015 has been 58.52 Bn QR, which shows a decline of 40.6% over the estimate of Q2, 2014, placed at 98.49 Bn QR. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015) revised estimate, there has been a fall of 8.8% in the GVA of this sector. The real GVA of this sector in Q2, 2015 [99.30 Bn QR], shows a rise of 0.9% over the estimate of Q2, 2014 [98.41 Bn QR]. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015) revised estimate, there has been a rise of 0.1% in the GVA of this sector.

The reduction in international price levels of crude oil in this quarter has led to sharper decline in nominal GVA of this sector.

Non-Mining and Quarrying

The nominal GVA estimate of these sectors in the Q2, 2015 has been placed at 94.45 Bn QR, which shows an increase of 4.0% over the estimate of Q2, 2014 [90.81 Bn QR]. The real GVA of these sectors in Q2, 2015, totaled 97.33 Bn QR, which shows a growth of 9.1% over the corresponding quarter [Q2, 2014] GVA estimate [89.22 Bn QR].

The high growth in the Q2, 2015 is the result of double digit rise seen mainly in construction, trading, hospitality and financial sectors.

Details of the sectoral level preliminary nominal and real GVA estimates in Q2, 2015 and Q2, 2014 & Q1 of 2015 are available in the Tables 1 and 2 of the Press Release. An analysis by major industry group, comparing the performance in Q2 of 2015 with the corresponding quarter (Q2) in 2014 [Year-on-Year Basis] and with first quarter (Q1) [Quarter-on-Quarter basis] of 2015 is given in the following paragraphs.

Manufacturing

The nominal GVA of manufacturing sector in Q2 of 2015 is estimated at 15.01 Bn QR showing a drop of 23.3% over the estimate of corresponding quarter (Q2) of 2014 [19.57 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015) revised estimate, an increase of 2.0% is noted. The real GVA of this sector is estimated at 19.66 Bn QR in Q2, 2015 showing a growth of 3.8% over the estimate of corresponding quarter (Q2) of 2014 [18.94 Bn QR]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015) revised GVA of this sector, there has been a growth of 3.3%.

This growth is primarily explained by the increase seen in the production of fertilizers and petrochemical products during this quarter. The sharp drop [Y-o-Y] in the nominal terms is due to falling international prices.

Construction

The nominal GVA estimate of the construction at 13.17 Bn QR in Q2, 2015 shows an increase of 15.3% when compared to the estimate of corresponding quarter of 2014 [11.43 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014].This double digit increase is primarily due to rising production volume seen in this quarter. However, compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015) estimate, a fall of 2.8% is noticed. The real GVA of the construction sector at 12.83 Bn QR in Q2, 2015 shows a growth of 19.7% when compared to the GVA of corresponding quarter of 2014 [10.72 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015), there has been a drop of 1.4% in the GVA of this sector.

Trade, Hotel and Restaurants

The nominal GVA of this group is estimated at 13.29 Bn QR in Q2 of 2015 registering an increase of 15.0% over the estimate of corresponding quarter of 2014 [11.55 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015) estimates, there has been a marginal increase of 0.6% in Q2, 2015. The real GVA of the “Trade, Hotel and Restaurants” sector is estimated at 12.92 Bn QR in Q2 of 2015 registering a growth of 12.5% over the corresponding quarter of 2014 [11.49 Bn QR in Q2 of 2014]. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015), the GVA of this sector remains flat.

Transport and Communication

This sector generated a nominal value added of 6.45 Bn QR in Q2, 2015 against 5.97 Bn QR in Q2, 2014 showing a rise of 8.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, Q1 of 2015, a drop of 5.4% in the GVA estimate has been noticed in this group. This sector generated a real value addition of 6.22 Bn QR in Q2, 2015 against 5.89 Bn QR estimated in Q2, 2014. It shows a growth of 5.5%. Compared to the previous quarter (Q1 of 2015) estimates; the GVA estimate has fallen by 5.2%.

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services

The nominal GVA of this group of economic activities is estimated at 27.23 Bn QR in Q2 of 2015, showing an increase of 12.2%, (primarily due to rise in banking and real estate sectors) when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q2, 2014) estimate of 24.48 Bn QR. However, compared to the previous quarter [Q1 of 2015], a drop of 4.7% in the GVA estimate has been recorded in this group. The real GVA of this group of economic activities is estimated at 26.84 Bn QR in Q2 of 2015, showing a growth of 10% when compared to the corresponding quarter (Q2) estimate of 24.41 Bn QR in 2014. However the GVA level of this quarter has shown a marginal decline when compared  to the revised estimate of previous quarter.

Government Services

The nominal GVA contribution of the “Government Services” which includes the provision of public health, education and other miscellaneous services is estimated at 19.65 Bn QR in Q2 of 2015, which is 7.9% higher than the estimate [18.21 Bn QR] of Q2 of 2014. The real GVA contribution of the “Government Services” is estimated at 19.16 Bn QR in Q2 of 2015, which is 6.3% higher than the estimate of Q2 of 2014 (18.02 Bn QR).

For more details on Quarterly GDP please refer to the Website: www.mdps.gov.qa and Qatar Information Exchange, www.qalm.gov.qa. The next Press Release on Q3, 2015 GDP would be on 31st December, 2015.

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